Electrified truck & bus powertrain revenue to approach $200bn by 2030
- Nearly half of trucks and buses will be electrified by 2030
- Battery electric will remain the dominant powertrain type
- E-axles will reduce in price by around 50% by 2030
London, 02 August 2022 – Updated research from Interact Analysis shows that the majority of electrified truck and bus component revenues derive from battery packs, with fuel cell systems set to remain less popular right out to 2030. The market is being driven by soaring demand for electrified trucks and buses.
In the EMEA (Europe the Middle East and Africa) and Americas regions alone, there are currently between 10 and 11 million trucks, as well as 100,000 buses, registered annually. Light duty vehicles currently dominate the shipment figures, and this will not change by 2030. However, the growth rate for medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses is much higher than for light duty vehicles. Revenue growth rates for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are particularly notable, because, while fewer such vehicles will be sold, component revenue per vehicle is much higher than for light-duty vehicles. Major growth in the number of electrified vehicles in the EMEA and Americas regions will mainly begin after 2022 particularly in Western Europe. While growth in the number of electrified long-haul trucks will mainly begin towards the end of the decade.
In terms of component pricing, most component types experienced an increase during 2021 and 2022, especially motors. Transmissions and on-board chargers are likely to remain highly priced out to 2030. However, despite this we are expecting to see a period of price erosion due to increased competition within the market. Between 2024 and 2030, motors are likely to experience particularly strong price erosion due to mature technology levels, as well as a trend toward multiple motors per vehicle meaning each motor is smaller and cheaper. On the other hand, inverters will experience low price erosion due to an expected trend toward more expensive silicon carbide inverters over time. E-axles are likely to remain high in price throughout the forecast period as the technology is currently in its infancy. Currently, the average price of an e-axle sits at around $16,000 which will steadily decrease to $8,000 by 2030. Compared to the motor and transmission powertrain type, the e-axle will still remain an expensive component, yet their attraction comes from the cost savings they deliver in terms of housing and wiring savings.
Jamie Fox, Principal Analyst at Interact Analysis comments, “The Ukraine war had a significant impact on raw material prices, especially nickel which is a key component used in vehicle components. However, it is good to know that this price has now returned to the pre-war level. Although the aftereffects of COVID-19 still linger, vehicle shipment and manufacturing has returned back to around ¾ normal. But 2019 levels of vehicle shipments will not recover until 2023-2024 with electric vehicle shipments then growing significantly.”
About the Report:
The hybrid and electric truck and bus industry is lacking credible and detailed component market data. If you need to get accurate and up-to-date market sizes, prices and volumes for components such as motors, batteries and inverters in hybrid and electric truck and bus technology, then this report is the answer.
The report includes over 100 tables of forecast data and a pivot table for an even deeper dive. Our research has already proven valuable to leading OEMs and component suppliers as we document the increasing interest in and growth of electric vehicles.
About Interact Analysis
With over 200 years of combined experience, Interact Analysis is the market intelligence authority for global supply chain automation. Our research covers the entire automation value chain – from the technology used to automate factory production, through inventory storage and distribution channels, to the transportation of the finished goods. The world’s leading companies trust us to surface robust insights and opportunities for technology-driven growth. To learn more, visit www.InteractAnalysis.com