Tim has over 20 years’ experience in technology market intelligence with expertise across a broad range of industrial automation technologies and industries. Tim is now Senior Research Director and Principal Analyst for the Interact Analysis Industrial Technology team, using his considerable experience to develop best-in-class research for the manufacturing sector.
Manufacturing across the board is reeling from pandemic-induced shut-downs, interrupted supply-chains, staff shortages, lack of investment and consequent slashed order-books. Some sectors will take years to recover. Interact Analysis’s latest report takes a look at an area it has not examined before, the geared motors and industrial gears market. It specifically looks at likely market performance in the time-scale 2020-2024 and concludes that, though the sector will see a significant downturn in 2020, recovery should be swift. This report provides the most in-depth data-driven analysis on the market for geared motors, solo gearboxes, industrial (heavy-duty) gears and planetary gearboxes ever produced. Over 40 hours of interviews with vendors and clients were conducted during this research.
Severe decline in 2020 followed by return to 2019 levels of output by 2022
Interact Analysis predicts a significant decline in sales in 2020 for the global geared motor and gearbox market. A contraction of at least -7% is expected as COVID-19 ravages the economy. However, in spite of the sector having a tough time of it in 2020, the market is projected to grow throughout the remainder of the forecast period, effectively surpassing its 2019 level in 2022. Thereafter, the market is expected to see continued slow growth. The long-term effect of COVID-19 will drive the demand for more automated and flexible equipment, particularly in the warehouse setting, much of which will consume geared motors and industrial gears.
Strong regional variations within this recovery
Of the top 10 regional producers of geared equipment, China, South Korea and India are expected to surpass 2019 production levels as early as 2021. Whilst it is widely accepted that of these top three, China and South Korea have dealt with the pandemic effectively, the same can be said of Germany, but the German recovery in this sector will be much slower, because the industry will be crippled by its heavy reliance on the export market, which will continue to be volatile, owing to the damage wrought by the virus. This also applies to Japan, which, like Germany, is considered to have had a good pandemic. The geared product market in Germany is not expected to recover to 2019 levels until 2024. The USA has not coped well with the pandemic but is predicted to recover faster in the longer-term due to the levels of stimulus being applied and greater pent-up demand. Projected figures for the CAGR of the geared motors market for the main regions, in the time-scale 2020-2024 are as follows:
Americas – 1.9%; Asia – 3.4%; Japan – 0.8%; EMEA – 1.0%.
This gives an average CAGR of 2.1%. In this post-COVID era, we will be grateful for small mercies.
End-user and machine type variation also significant factors in recovery
COVID-19 has significantly altered the economic landscape for many major end-user industries. This will have a direct effect on orders for geared products. Transportation-related sectors such as aerospace and automotive will be the worst hit losing up to one-third of manufacturing output during 2020. Recovery will be slow, especially because regions like the USA and Brazil, the two countries worst hit by the virus, are major contributors to this market demand. Brazil, for example, has a burgeoning aerospace industry. Sectors that are deemed critical infrastructure will be less impacted and may experience strong growth. Food & beverage machinery and packaging machinery (used extensively in the food industry) have continued to experience significant demand. Logistics is forecast to experience strong demand owing to the long-term effect of COVID-19 on e-commerce and our on-line shopping habits. Increased automation of warehousing for logistics will be a key factor in driving conveyor demand. Conveyors and cranes are also expected to perform well as companies resort to more automated solutions to virus-proof their production lines.
Geared motors to lead the way
Geared motors and solo gearboxes (light-duty products used in warehouse and production-line settings) accounted for just over half of the total market in 2019. The industries using these products are expected to perform more positively over the next 5 years, compared to those using heavy-duty/planetary products) so the market-size of light-duty equipment will increase steadily over time. Included in the geared motors/solo gearbox category are all inline-helical (including cyclo-style products), parallel-helical, bevel-helical and worm products. Geared motors are predicted to experience the fastest growth (CAGR of 3.6%) to 2024. This sub-sector will grow faster than the solo gearbox market as OEMs and end-users increasingly see the benefit of purchasing a packaged solution from a single vendor. Industrial heavy-duty gearboxes (including both parallel and bevel heavy-duty products) are the second largest gearbox market, but their growth outlook is more subdued, the average CAGR being forecast to be only 0.9% to 2024. This is because the industries where this equipment is used – metals and mining, for instance – are not performing as well as other sectors. Planetary gearboxes (including solo products and combined geared motor solutions) which have a broad torque range and can be used across a range of light and heavy duty applications, will perform somewhere in the middle, their projected CAGR being 1.8% to 2024.
About the report
Interact Analysis’s geared motors and industrial (heavy-duty) gears report provides the most in-depth dataset on the market for geared motors, solo gearboxes, industrial (heavy-duty) gears and planetary gearboxes ever produced. Over 40 hours of interviews with market stakeholders were conducted for this research. This, used in tandem with our unique tertiary modelling capability, allowed us to measure and predict demand for gearboxes across 12 product types, 32 regions, 28 machinery/industry sectors and 12 torque ratings. Data is presented in terms of both revenues and units and contains nearly 2,000,000 unique data points. Our forecast is informed using a 13-year historical data set on the performance of industry and machinery production. Using this data, we provide a 5-year forecast for every segmentation in our report. Click here to learn more.