Alastair has over 10 years’ experience leading research activities in scaled, high-growth industrial and technology markets. At Interact Analysis he is responsible for electric trucks and buses, autonomous trucks and off-highway electrification.
- China is 31% of global commercial vehicle market sales
- Vocational segment to exceed overall global growth with strong demand from construction, oil and agricultural applications
- Daimler has the largest market share globally, Dongfeng is forecast to gain significant market share by 2022
New research from Interact Analysis forecasts strong growth for global commercial vehicle sales in 2018, driven by favourable economic growth, positive demand for a number of vocational segments and fleet investments in lower emission vehicles.
Alastair Hayfield, Research Director, comments “it’s an incredibly exciting time for the commercial vehicle market. Not only is significant growth forecast in a number of major markets, but the trends of electrification and autonomy are driving unprecedented levels of change and investment.”
Vocational Vehicle Market to Exceed Global Market Growth
The vocational vehicle market – one where vehicles are built for a specific application such as a dump truck or fire truck – is forecast to grow more quickly than the global commercial vehicle market over the next two years.
Dump trucks represent around half of all vocational vehicle sales. Used for transporting bulk materials in construction or mining aggregates, demand is set to be strong for several years. Investment in US infrastructure and China’s ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative are two examples of major projects that will drive demand over the mid- to long term.
Agricultural vehicles – those used for transporting crops or livestock – will also see good, long term growth prospects. A growing global population, improvements in agricultural production in developing countries, and an increase in demand for livestock in China will all help to fuel growth.
Finally, as oil prices increase beyond $70 per barrel, vocational vehicle manufacturers are seeing investment returning to the oil & gas industry, notably in the form of new machinery and vehicles.
Putting Electricity to Work
The vocational truck market is also examining how electrification can be used to reduce emissions. Given the heavy-duty cycle and need for additional hydraulics/power for lifts, cranes, etc. for some vocations, electrification isn’t always practical. However, applications where electrification makes sense for vocational vehicles include urban operations – refuse collection, concrete mixers – and light duty cycles such as street cleaners or certain utility vehicles. Some recent examples:
- Mack Trucks, a division of Volvo, introduced an electric refuse truck in 2018.
- Peterbilt, a division of Paccar, introduced an electric refuse truck in 2017.
- BYD introduced an electric refuse truck in 2017.
- Shaanxi Automotive and EDI developed a PHEV cement mixer in 2017.
- CIFA, a division of Zoomlion, introduced its PHEV Energya mixer truck in 2013.
Interact Analysis is currently tracking over 15,000 confirmed orders for electric, hybrid and hydrogen commercial vehicles in the next 3 years:
More details on this research study can be found here.