The following two tabs change content below.

Tim Dawson

Tim has nearly 20 years’ experience in technology market intelligence with expertise across a broad range of industrial automation technologies and industries. Tim is now Research Director and Principal Analyst for the Interact Analysis Industrial Technology team, using his considerable experience to develop best-in-class research for the manufacturing sector. Read More

We predict that global PLC, DCS and remote I/O revenues will maintain positive growth in 2019 (growing by 0.6%), despite being negatively impacted by the slowdown in overall manufacturing industry output. According to the latest data from our Industrial Controls and Remote I/O market report, it was worth just over $30bn in 2018, and we forecast that it will be worth nearly $34bn in 2022.

Growth Varies by Controller Type

Following a significant market decline in 2015 and a further small decline in 2016 (resulting primarily from the oil price collapse), the market for DCS returned to growth in 2017 and 2018. Looking ahead, the DCS market is forecast to continue on a slow but positive growth trajectory registering low single-digit growth to 2022. Following its sharp decline in spending, the oil & gas industry remains cautious about investment in new plant and capacity; however, positive sentiment as well as the increasing and urgent need for replacement and upgrade of aging systems (especially in the US) is helping to drive demand and investment in DCS. Small and medium-sized installations offering a quicker ROI, are driving the bulk of investment as end-users turn to automation and digitalization to raise productivity and reduce operating costs. Other important DCS consuming industries (such as power, chemicals and pharmaceuticals) are also projected positive outlooks to 2022.

Barring the oil price shock that impacted the DCS market so significantly in 2015, PLC market growth on the other hand (as illustrated in the following figure) is more volatile in nature and instead is more heavily influenced by trends impacting manufacturing (and especially machine building) sectors. As such, the 2019 downturn forecast for manufacturing (discussed further here) will cause the PLCs market to totally stall in 2019, following three years of above average growth in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

The stalling of the PLC market in 2019 is the net effect of the slowdown in China, which contributes close to half of global manufacturing output, coupled with forecast declines in other important PLC consuming countries (most notably the United States, Japan and Germany). Following the pause in PLC market growth in 2019, a return to growth is forecast for 2020 and 2021; ahead of a slowdown again in 2022.

Note, the market projections presented here, reflect our assumption that Brexit will be of some “soft” variant, which will minimize the impact of instability in Europe predominantly (but globally too!). However, a hard Brexit scenario is still on the table and would be hugely disruptive to the global manufacturing economy. In such a scenario, we would make further, and significant, downward revisions to the forecasts presented here.

About the Industrial Controls & I/O Modules Study

Interact Analysis will shortly be publishing a new report examining the market for industrial controls (PLCs and DCS) and remote I/O modules. The report’s primary author, Tim Dawson, is a known industry expert, having published multiple studies on these topics over the last two decades. The results of the study have derived from extensive vendor research over a period of more than six months. If you’d like to learn more about the report or have any questions, please contact us at: info@interactanalysis.com.

 

Share this:

Posted by Tim Dawson

Tim has nearly 20 years’ experience in technology market intelligence with expertise across a broad range of industrial automation technologies and industries. Tim is now Research Director and Principal Analyst for the Interact Analysis Industrial Technology team, using his considerable experience to develop best-in-class research for the manufacturing sector. Read More