Over 10,000,000 Battery Electric Trucks And Buses To Be Sold This Decade – Interact Analysis

Contact:  Joseph Walker, Interact Analysis, UK

+44 (0)7903 556059 | jos.walker@interactanalysis.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 11th November 2020

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Over 10,000,000 Battery Electric Trucks And Buses To Be Sold This Decade – Interact Analysis

  • 2020 to see overall 7% contraction in global battery electric commercial vehicle markets
  • 2021 to see significant recovery, with 47% growth in the battery electric sector
  • New Chinese policy direction is imminent, favouring hybrid vehicles

London, 11th November 2020 – Interact Analysis has completed its latest in-depth report on the commercial vehicle sector, with a particular focus on the battery electric and hybrid market. After a severe COVID-induced setback in 2020, the industry is predicted to make a swift recovery in 2021. Hybridisation is the favoured solution for most long-distance vehicles; while full electric is preferred for city buses and last-mile delivery vehicles.

After a 7% decline in the market for battery-electric commercial vehicles in 2020, which was the continuation of a decline in 2019 and was largely due to Chinese subsidy policies, the sector will bounce back in 2021. Interact Analysis says that though sales dipped from 168,000 in 2019 to around 156,000 in 2020, the projected global sales figure for 2021 stands at nearly 231,000 units – a stunning 47% growth for the sector. This is driven by growth in Europe and North America, along with the extension of China’s EV subsidy program which was meant to come to an end in 2020. APAC will be streets ahead in 2021, surpassing the 2019 global figure with over 171,000 sales. Europe will be second in this league table, with a projected 44,000 new electric vehicle registrations in 2021. The total truck and bus market (battery-electric, fuel cell, hybrid and diesel) will decline by 16% in 2020 but will see 15% growth in 2021.

Interact Analysis forecasts that electrified powertrains – hybrid, fuel cell and battery electric – will account for over 2.5 million annual registrations of commercial vehicles by 2030, out of a total of over 20 million. Battery electric powertrains are predicted to make serious inroads in the city bus and light duty vehicle sectors, notably last-mile delivery vehicles, reflecting the anticipated lasting boom in online-shopping caused by the pandemic. Inter-city bus fleets and long-haul trucks where pure battery electric is not always a viable option are predicted to see an increasing use of fuel cell technology.

The latest policy developments in China signalling a relaxation in green rules to stimulate production indicate that hybrid technologies will have a strong role in the region. Targets indicate that by 2030 New Energy Vehicles (battery electric or fuel-cell electric) should account for 30% of new sales in China while hybrids should account for 75% of ‘traditional energy’ vehicles. The impact on the medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle market could be significant.

Rueben Scriven, Senior Analyst at Interact Analysis, says: “We aren’t there yet with full electric powertrains for heavy duty commercial vehicles, and we may not be for some time. Therefore we predict that hybrid solutions will come to the fore in APAC (partly due to new regulations in China), whilst in Europe, OEM fleet CO2 emissions regulations (-15% by 2025 in the EU) will likely push mild hybridisation in heavy-duty applications. California, along with several other US states, is mandating OEMs to sell a certain number of zero emission commercial vehicles. This will disincentivise OEMs to sell hybrids as these vehicles may cannibalise zero emission vehicle sales.”

 

About the report 

Over the last two years, Interact Analysis has developed a rigorous forecasting methodology for commercial vehicle electrification. The company has developed a sophisticated total cost of ownership (TCO) model in collaboration with leading tier 1 suppliers and OEMs which is used to calculate the comparative TCO advantage of an electric commercial vehicle relative to a diesel equivalent. This report is the most detailed and best researched of its kind and should be considered a critical asset to navigate the electrified commercial vehicle market. Interact Analysis has invested significant time and resources in interviewing leading OEMs, suppliers, start-ups, fleets, and others to give the most up-to-date and thorough assessment of the main trends.

About Interact Analysis

Interact Analysis is an international provider of market research for the Intelligent Automation sector. Our team of experienced industry analysts delivers research into three core sectors: industrial automation, robotics and warehouse automation, and commercial vehicles. Intelligent Automation – which is the integration of artificial intelligence and automation – will change virtually every industry imaginable. This combination enables greater efficiencies, productivity, convenience, and scale. It has the potential to drastically alter the outlook for many traditional industries such as manufacturing, healthcare and automotive as well as to lead to the emergence of entirely new industries. To learn more, visit www.InteractAnalysis.com