With a background in computational biology, Rueben Scriven joined Interact Analysis two years ago and leads the warehouse automation and on-highway commercial vehicle research areas. Rueben has spoken at some of the leading industry events and moderated several panel discussions on the topic of commercial vehicle electrification. He’s also appeared on CNBC to provide insight on the global electric bus market.
With a growing concern for the negative health implications of NOx and other particulate matter released from the combustion of fossil fuels, it’s no surprise that governments and local authorities have introduced fiscal policies to limit the amount of tailpipe emissions within urban environments. Coupled with the rapidly declining cost of lithium ion batteries, it’s easy to foresee the global hybrid and electric commercial vehicle market entering a period of high growth. But is this just hype?
Our in-depth analysis of the global hybrid and electric commercial vehicles market, based on 50+ hours of primary research interviews, provides the clarity and granularity needed to make data driven decisions.
The Infographic can be downloaded here
- Interact Analysis forecast just over 160,000 battery electric buses will be delivered annually by 2025. In 2018, China accounted for 99% of the global battery electric bus deliveries, however, this is set to decrease to 80% by 2025.
- Inter-city buses will have a 31% share of the global battery electric bus market. This is largely because China heavily subsidises the cost of hybrid and electric inter-city buses and will account for the vast majority of the global demand throughout the forecast period.
- Yutong and BYD lead both the Chinese market and the global market excluding China.
- Despite a market contraction of 12% in 2018, Interact Analysis forecasts that just over 1.2 million battery electric trucks will be delivered annually in 2025.
- The EU27 and APAC will make up the majority of the demand while the Middle East, Africa and South America will experience relatively sober growth. The US and Canada will experience moderate growth in absolute volumes but the number of electric trucks as a percentage of the total trucks sold in 2025 will only be 0.7% and 3.6% respectively.
- Heavy-duty trucks will be better suited for hybridisation compared to lighter ones. The cost difference between a hybrid and battery electric light-duty truck is marginal whereas the difference becomes far greater as you increase the weight of the vehicles.
- Dongfeng lead the global battery electric truck market while the European and North American markets have been dominated by start-ups and new brands such as Workhorse and StreetScooter as well as light duty truck OEMs such as Nissan and Renault.
The above analysis is taken from a new Interact Analysis report – “Hybrid & Electric Trucks and Buses – 2019”. The hybrid & electric truck and bus market is extremely dynamic and dependent upon factors including legislation, battery prices and the relative prices of electricity and diesel. The rate at which any given segment will grow is dependent on the interaction between these determining factors. This report breaks down the contributing growth factors and provides a credible market forecast based on the interacting variables derived from more than 40 hours of interviews.